How long will Israel stay in Lebanon?

AS SIRENS blare in the Israeli town of Shlomi, a mile south of the border with Lebanon, a distant buzz is heard, followed by a dull explosion. It is yet another drone launched from across the border by Hizbullah, the Shia militia that is still fighting on behalf of Iran and for its own shrinking constituency in Lebanon. It is unclear whether the drone detonated itself or was intercepted and destroyed by the Israel Defence Forces (IDF).

Hizbullah resumed lobbing missiles and drones at Israel almost a month ago, just after Israel and America began strikes against Iran. In response, the IDF launched air strikes on what it says are Hizbullah-related targets all over Lebanon. It has also sent troops into the south, though it has stopped short of a full-scale invasion. The combination of air and ground attacks has killed more than 1,000 people. It has also displaced around 1m Lebanese civilians, most of them Shias from the south and the suburbs of Beirut, the capital.

There are echoes of the previous round of warfare, which began in October 2023 after Hizbullah joined in Hamas’s attack on Israel. Yet there is a difference. Then, Israel evacuated tens of thousands of its civilians from near the border for more than a year. This time, it is determined not to evacuate anyone. “We won’t allow our communities to be in a death zone constantly threatened by drones, like on the front lines in Ukraine,” says an IDF officer.

Instead, Israel now seems resolved to expel, perhaps indefinitely, civilians from south Lebanon, where Hizbullah continues to operate. Israeli ministers have been talking up the prospect of occupying a wide swathe of Lebanese territory for the long term. On March 24th Israel Katz, the defence minister, said Israeli forces would “control the remaining bridges and the security zone up to the Litani”, a river that flows around 20 miles north of the Israeli border. That would mean seizing nearly a tenth of the country.

The IDF insists it has not been given any such orders, yet. But Israeli officials say that whether or not they occupy more territory, civilians will not be allowed back to their homes in the south until the Lebanese army acts forcefully against Hizbullah and ensures it can no longer attack Israel. Israel has in effect severed the south of Lebanon from the rest of the country by striking eight bridges over the Litani river. That suggests it may indeed be preparing for a prolonged occupation.

In Lebanon the threat of a new occupation and the prospect of a long displacement crisis are beginning to pull the country apart along sectarian lines. Following air strikes on non-Shia parts of Beirut, Christian neighbourhoods are increasingly turning away the displaced, fearing, with good reason, that by welcoming them they would invite more Israeli attacks.

The government is divided over how far it can act against Hizbullah. Earlier this month it showed some resolve by declaring Hizbullah’s military activities illegal. This week the foreign minister expelled the Iranian ambassador for meddling in Lebanon’s internal affairs. In response, Iran launched one of its long-range missiles towards Beirut.

Among some Lebanese, frustration is mounting over dithering by Joseph Aoun, the president, and his army commander. The army has done little to act on the government’s three-week-old verdict on Hizbullah’s arms, insisting that the state cannot move further without a ceasefire.

Israel’s campaign is not helping. One reason Hizbullah managed to play such a dominant role in Lebanon for so long is that it styles itself as a force of resistance. It is currently unpopular for dragging Lebanon into war after war with Israel. But the more civilians are killed in the latest bombing, and the more serious the threat of occupation appears, the more likely it becomes that Lebanese, especially Shia, will rally to its cause. That will make it harder for the government to follow through on its promises to smash the group.

For all their differences, civilians on both sides of the border share one concern: that, whatever happens to the war in Iran, the conflict it has reignited in Lebanon will continue for a long time yet. ■