Business

The IMF lowered its forecast of global growth, projecting the world economy to expand by 3.1% this year, down from the 3.3% it estimated in January. It shaved its forecasts for most big economies, taking half a percentage point off Britain’s GDP growth, which it now thinks will be just 0.8%. The economic toll from the Iran conflict will be much more pronounced on commodity-importing emerging-market and developing economies, the fund said. It pointed out that without the war it would have upgraded growth, making the cost of the conflict greater than it appears in its forecasts.

America’s annual inflation rate surged to 3.3% in March from 2.4% in February. Energy prices jumped by 10.9% from February, with fuel-oil prices rising by 30.7%. The price for regular petrol remains above $4 a gallon, according to the AAA, up from $3.17 a year ago.

Oil trading stayed volatile, with Brent crude fetching between $95 and $100 a barrel. The International Energy Agency said the Iran conflict had caused the “most severe oil-supply shock in history”. It now expects global oil demand to decline by 80,000 barrels a day on average in 2026, compared with growth of 640,000 barrels a day in its previous forecast. The forecast assumes a resumption of regular deliveries of oil and gas from the Middle East by mid-year.

Not everyone is suffering because of the war. BP reported that its oil-trading desk had recorded an “exceptional” quarter, as prices soared and customers scrambled to obtain supplies. Oil companies’ full earnings later this month will square off those gains from higher prices with losses to production during the conflict.

America’s big banks also said their trading desks had done well in the first quarter, helped by volatility in equity markets. JPMorgan Chase’s net profit rose by 13%, year on year, to $16.5bn. Citigroup pulled in $24.6bn in revenue, the most in a decade, pushing its profit up by 42%, to $5.8bn. Equity traders at Goldman Sachs helped power the bank to a $5.6bn profit, an increase of 19%.

Tech stocks resumed their ascent. Oracle’s share price rose by more than 20% over five days, and Nvidia’s by 10%. Intel’s stock is up by 45% since April 1st; it has announced a partnership with Elon Musk’s Terafab project. The NASDAQ Composite has had its longest winning streak since 2023. The S&P 500 hit a new record.

China’s GDP grew by 5% in the first quarter, year on year, a robust performance that beat analysts’ expectations. The government warned that it expects the economy to take a hit from the Iran war in the second quarter.

Donald Trump said he would remove Jerome Powell from the Federal Reserve’s board of governors if he stays on beyond the end of his term as chairman, which is May 15th. In March a judge dismissed the subpoenas issued by the Justice Department in its investigation of Mr Powell for allegedly misleading Congress about the Fed’s refurbishment. The Senate Banking Committee is due to hold a confirmation hearing for Kevin Warsh, Mr Powell’s replacement as chairman, on April 21st.

A jury found that Live Nation, the owner of Ticketmaster, had illegally tried to thwart competition in the market for live events. The Department of Justice launched its case against Live Nation in 2024, and reached a settlement with the company soon after the trial started in March. Other parties in the suit pressed their claim. The judge will now decide what penalty to impose.

Amazon struck a deal to buy Globalstar, which operates a low-orbit satellite constellation, for $11.6bn. The acquisition furthers Amazon’s aim to compete with Elon Musk’s Starlink communications network by giving it rights to radiowave spectrum, which will enable it to offer mobile connections in the future. Amazon is rushing to launch more satellites as it prepares to provide internet services to JetBlue and Delta Air Lines.

The crew of NASA’s Artemis II mission returned safely to Earth. Their capsule splashed down in the Pacific Ocean off the coast of San Diego, after travelling at 25,000 miles an hour (40,200kph) before entering the atmosphere, eventually slowing to 20mph. Jared Isaacman, NASA’s administrator, promised that more missions would be sent to the Moon “until we land on it in 2028 and start building our base”.

In what will be many employees’ worst nightmare, Meta is reportedly building an animated AI version of Mark Zuckerberg that can interact with staff. The AI is being trained with Mr Zuckerberg’s image, voice and mannerisms to discuss problems workers may have, and also performance. And possibly job cuts.