A scramble ahead of France’s presidential election

In 12 months’ time, French voters will elect a successor to Emmanuel Macron. The president is barred by the constitution from serving more than two consecutive terms—although he could try for a third, after a gap, in 2032. Polls for next year’s two-round presidential vote consistently suggest that the only candidate almost certain to reach the run-off is whoever represents the populist-right National Rally (RN), whether Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella. But the rest of the race is open, and crowded. “We’re at the stage of worst rivalry,” says a centrist close to Mr Macron. “Everyone is saying: ‘Why not me?’”

The curse of plenty afflicts all mainstream parties. On the left, there are lots of aspirants but no agreement on how to select one. Olivier Faure, the Socialist leader, wants to hold a primary. Raphaël Glucksmann, who polls better than others in first-round voting (with 10-14%), is against the idea and will not take part in one. Some on the left want to join forces with Jean-Luc Mélenchon, a hard-left firebrand with his own party, to pick a single candidate. Others judge Mr Mélenchon toxic. In the background lurks François Hollande, a former president, who, says a friend, wants to make a comeback “if he can”.

Matters are no clearer for the Republicans on the right. Members vote this week on whether to hold a primary. Bruno Retailleau, the party leader, looks best placed to win one. But in first-round presidential polls he scores mostly in single digits. He also faces rivals including some who have set up their own parties, among them David Lisnard, the mayor of Cannes, and Dominique de Villepin, an ex-prime minister. None is likely to do any better than Mr Retailleau in presidential polls.

The centre, opened up by Mr Macron in 2017, is also split. Two of his former prime ministers hope to be its champion. Neither is as compelling a candidate as Mr Macron was in his time. Edouard Philippe, boosted in the polls by his recent re-election as mayor of Le Havre, has said that he is standing. Gabriel Attal, who runs Renaissance, the president’s party, is also expected to. On April 23rd Mr Attal publishes a book entitled “As a Free Man”, which looks like both an effort to distance himself from Mr Macron and a prelude to a presidential bid. Polls suggest that Mr Philippe is better placed to qualify for the run-off. He could win 25.5% of first-round voting, second to Mr Bardella on 38%—and is currently the only candidate with a chance of beating the RN leader in a run-off.

The risk of this crowded field is that too many mainstream candidates split the vote—and hand voters a choice of two extremes. This is why some centrists and Republicans are urging an alliance behind a single candidate. A group of 90 of them published an open letter last month to this end. It is hard, though, to see how such rivals could now settle on one.

In the end, suggests a centrist figure, “the sorting tool will be the polls”. That may take time. Presidential polls a year from a vote are often wrong (see table). Mr Macron, who was barely tested as a candidate 12 months from the day he won the presidency, knows this better than most. Decisive polling trends often take place just a couple of months, if not weeks, before the vote. It may not be until early 2027 that conclusions are drawn, deals between rivals are done, poorly placed candidates stand down and the field narrows.

As for the RN, it too does not yet know which candidate it will field. The court of appeal rules in July whether to uphold a ban on Ms Le Pen running for public office over her party’s misuse of European Union funds. If it does, the RN has agreed that the candidacy will pass to the 30-year-old Mr Bardella, whose liaison with an Italian princess was recently splashed across the pages of Paris Match, a glossy magazine.

With motorists angry about rising fuel bills, and Mr Macron soon entering his tenth year in office, the RN is surfing potent anti-incumbency sentiment. But it has also lost a big ally in Europe, now that Hungary’s Viktor Orban has been ousted.

An RN victory next year is—for the first time—a real possibility, but it is not a foregone conclusion. “The consistency of polls along with recent election results point to a very strong probability that the RN qualifies for the second round,” says Mathieu Gallard of Ipsos, a polling group. “But the polls don’t allow us to say that Bardella or Le Pen are favourites to win.” ■